Do Huge Crowds Translate Into Big Returns At The Polls

PENANG, March 7 (Bernama) -- Is it likely that the huge crowds seen at opposition "ceramah" (talks) in Penang will translate into votes when the electorate goes to the polls tomorrow in Malaysia's 12th general election?. History has given some indication. It has shown that Chinese voters in Penang -- largely unpredictable -- are not easily deceived by rhetoric. Lim Kit Siang, the DAP stalwart, learnt this in 1995.

In the general election that year, huge crowds thronged DAP ceramah but, when the ballots were counted, Lim lost by a massive 7,487 votes to current chief minister, Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon, in the Tanjung Bunga state seat.

This time around, the DAP is hoping that anti-establishment sentiment will swing the tide in its favour. But will Kit Siangs son, Guan Eng, who is leading the partys election campaign, win over the voters and deny Barisan Nasional (BN) its two-third majority.

A political analyst believes that despite the oppositions antics, the voting pattern has shown that Penangites favour a stable coalition government.

"I would say that the Barisan Nasional will retain a two-third majority as it has previously. As seen in the 1986 and 1990 general elections, the voting pattern has not changed," says Dr Siva Murgayan Pandian, senior lecturer of the School of Social Sciences at Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM).

Despite their criticism of government policies, Penangites have shown that they would not risk their future by allowing the opposition, which has little grassroots support, to take the state.

Siva Murgayan talks of two groups of voters in Penang. One, he says, would cast votes in protest, out of anger with the establishment for whatever the reasons may be, while the other, which is the silent majority, would be in a dilemma as to whether to sacrifice the Chinese-majority seats to the opposition or retain them for the BN.

"They (the silent majority) may want the BN to retain power in Penang as they feel it is important for the state government to have cordial ties with the federal government," he says, noting that the power-sharing formula has served the people well.

Their silence is interpreted as a sign that the people are not prepared for a change and would rather stick with the time-tested power-sharing formula of the BN component parties, Umno, Gerakan and MCA, in Penang.

The analyst says people are drawn to the fiery speeches of opposition politicians but they hold their votes close to their chest. Penang voters, especially the Chinese, are known for their split-ticket voting pattern, whereby they would elect an opposition candidate to parliament and send a BN candidate to the state assembly.

Penang is the only state in the country with a majority of Chinese voters, making up 56 per cent of the total electorate in the state. Siva Murgayan says the 48 hours preceding polling would be the most crucial for all parties.

"The BN should use this period to the fullest and re-energize its machinery to woo the voters," he says, stressing that planned programmes and projects should be clearly explained to the people.

Both the DAP and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) have declared Penang as a frontline state, and Guan Eng and PKR adviser Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim have raised the election tempo. The two parties reached a seat allocation pact to ensure that their candidates engage in straight fights with the BN, avoiding three-cornered contests which could split the opposition votes.

Unlike in 1995, the DAP is depending on the PKR to secure the Malay votes, winning one or two state seats. The PKR suffered a major defeat in 2004, winning only one parliamentary seat -- Permatang Pauh -- through its president Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, who is Anwar's wife.

With Anwar back in the limelight, Permatang Pauh, which he held before his dismissal as the deputy prime minister in 1998, has been turned into a "battlefield" by both BN and PKR, with the latter backed by its other partners, PAS and Parti Rakyat Malaysia.

Umno veteran Datuk Mohd Noor Ahmad, 73, who has served as Kepala Batas Umno Division secretary, says the opposition parties could only make empty promises in their election manifesto as they had no track record like the BN.

"There seems to be no choice for the people. They have to give a strong mandate to the Barisan Nasional. It has worked well for all the people," he says.

"Penang wants to progress further and I am sure that with the various development projects announced by the government, such as the Northern Corridor Economic Region and the second Penang bridge, things will look up for the state," Mohd Noor tells Bernama.

Without the mandate, he says, the government would not be able to carry on with the projects planned for the people. "I am confident that a Gerakan-led state government will be in charge for the next five years in Penang, with a two-third majority (of seats) in hand."

He says history has shown that the opposition failed when it came to administrating Penang. He cites the case of former chief minister Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu leading Gerakan, then an opposition party, to win the election in Penang in 1969.

The party, which rode on a wave of anti-establishment sentiment brought about by the loss of Penangs free port status a year earlier, won 16 of the 24 state seats.

The DAP won three seats and Parti Rakyat one. The Alliance, the predecessor of the BN, retained only four seats.

After the election, Dr Lim became the chief minister. However, Gerakan found it difficult, as an opposition party, to rule the state, what with the unemployment rate at 15 per cent and continuing to rise.

After several overtures to the federal government, Chong Eu announced on Feb 15 1972 the formation of an Alliance-Gerakan coalition government in Penang. Chong Eu cited two reasons for this. Firstly, it was in the interest of national unity, stability and security, and secondly, it was better for the state so that socio-economic development could take place more rapidly. Chong Eu faced a revolt in the party ranks but he prevailed.

The way things were going, it was just a matter of time before Gerakan had a full-fledged pact with the Alliance federal government.

It happened finally in January 1973. An expanded Alliance led to the formation of the Barisan Nasional, with not only Gerakan in its fold but also PAS, the People's Progressive Party (PPP) and the Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP).

Mohd Noor says the opposition should draw lessons from Gerakan's early history --that political confrontation was not tolerated but was deemed detrimental to national unity, and that cooperation with the federal government was deemed necessary to obtain financial assistance for many economic projects.

He takes a swipe at Guan Eng and other "parachute" candidates fielded by the DAP to contest in Penang, saying this was not acceptable to the people here.

"Why didnt he (Guan Eng) contest in Melaka and serve the people in his own constituency instead of coming to Penang. Let the candidate who has the grassroots support here serve the people in Penang, rather than someone who is from another state," he says.

Guan Eng is contesting the Bagan parliamentary seat and the Air Putih state seat. Air Putih is within the parliamentary constituency of Bukit Bendera where incumbent Datuk Seri Chia Kwang Chye, the deputy minister of information and Gerakan secretary-general, is seeking re-election.

Commenting on Anwar's presence in the election campaign, Mohd Noor says the constituents of Permatang Pauh are thirsting for economic development, having been left behind over the past nine years.

He concurs with Dr Chandra Muzaffar, a former political ally of Anwar, who had said that Anwar was not the type of leader the country wanted because he had sung a different tune when in government.

He sees Dr Chandras criticism of Anwar as an "eye-opener" for the people, and it could help swing the votes in favour of the BN, especially in Permatang Pauh where Dr Wan Azizah is seeking re-election, challenged by the same BN candidate of 2004, Datuk Pirdaus Ismail, a former imam of the National Mosque in Kuala Lumpur.

"The people should realise that the opposition parties are not for them. They make empty promises. They are here temporarily; not for the long haul," he says. Even the post of chief minister is an issue for the DAP, says Mohd Noor, adding that the BN has the right to name Dr Koh's successor now or later. This only goes to show that the opposition had plans to sabotage the potential candidate in their campaigns.

Dr Koh, 59, who has held the post for 18 years, had said that he would only name his successor after the general election to "cool off" the intense speculation.

He has however confirmed three potential candidates -- Gerakan vice-president Datuk Dr Teng Hock Nan, the party's Tanjung division chief and present favourite Teng Chang Yeow and deputy secretary-general Datuk Lee Kah Choon.

Says Mohd Noor: "Anwar and Guan Eng may draw impressive crowds with their fiery speeches, and promises which they cannot fulfill, but the people know that this is all rhetoric to cloud the voters judgment.

"The people know that the opposition cannot do anything to bring development to the state. Penang folk do not want a change for the worse but for the better.

"It would be best that the new chief minister is advised by two leaders -- Dr Koh, who is Gerakan acting president, and the prime minister (Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi) himself, who is BN chairman."

Mohd Noor says a wind could pick up a day before polling and the BN would sail through this general election with a two-third majority.

Unlike the feel-good situation that prevailed from start to end in the 2004 general election, this time people who make up the silent majority dont want to listen any more and are just waiting for the big day -- polling -- tomorrow.

Silence, as the saying goes, is golden, but optimists in the BN camp expect the coalition to retain the two-third majority in Penang, with the silent majority, who are in a dilemma of sorts in this election, giving their "golden votes" to the right party.

And, silence they say is a sign that the people are not prepared for a change and want to stick to the time-tested power-sharing formula of the BN which has served them well all these years.

-- BERNAMA